Monday, July 26, 2010

02:41 07/27 CABLE: Recovery highs extend to $1.5530, with triggered stops above
$1.5525 meeting profit take sales that counter upside progress. Rate
currently trades back around $1.5515. Above $1.5530 and rate can turn
focus on the area between $1.5540/50. Offers here seen linked to
protection of the $1.5550 barrier. Stops noted above $1.5560, with the
200 day m/a seen today at $1.5556.

02:37 07/27 EURO-DOLLAR: Early Europe knock back from around $1.3015 to $1.2990 seen
on Asian sovereign sales, though dip quickly attracted demand interest
to allow rate to recover back to $1.3005. Offers remain in place toward
$1.3020, with further interest extending toward $1.3030 ($1.3029 July 20
high) with stops above. Through here and next band of resistance noted
between $1.3040/50, linked to protection of a reported barrier at
$1.3050. CTA stops noted on a break above. Bids remain to $1.2980.

02:33 07/27 DOLLAR-CANADA: Dealers cite Middle Eastern names selling dollar Canada
above C$1.0330. Rate currently trades C$1.0310-13.

02:30 07/27 FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3150
* Dollar-yen; Y86.95, Y87.00, Y87.50, Y88.00
* Cable; $1.5375
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf1.0500
* Aussie; $0.9050, $0.8950
* Aussie-yen; Y77.00, Y81.00

02:26 07/27 AUSSIE: Australian Conference Board May leading index rose 0.3pct and
coincident index rose +0.2 pct. Treasurer Wayne Swan accuses Liberal
Party of re-launching advertising campaigns against the governments
proposed mining taxes, saying the action was regrettable in light of the
significant changes made to the original tax proposals. The aussie has
maintain the gains made in Wall Street after the $0.9000 barrier was
taken out and has held the level despite sales from funds from the
$0.9030-35 area. Bids are now sitting at $0.8980-$0.9000. Aussie-yen
has traded Y78.22-63 with no help from a static dollar-yen. The move
from Y75.60 to current levels is starting to look a little strained, and
a break through Y78.74-86 would be need to maintain the uptrend. Support
is seen at Y77.79 and Y77.60-65. Market will be looking to UK
distributable trade data at 1000GMT and the US consumer confidence index
at 1400GMT for further impetus.

01:47 07/27 EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Inverse Head-&-Shoulder Target $1.3117 Still Eyed
RES 4: $1.3192 Former support line from Feb 2002, now resistance
RES 3: $1.3126/35 Low 28 Apr, 38.2% of $1.5144 to $1.1881, Bollinger top
RES 2: $1.3093 High 10 May
RES 1: $1.3028 High 20 July
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3009
SUP 1: $1.2873/98 100 & 5-day moving average's
SUP 2: $1.2732 Low 21 July
SUP 3: $1.2673 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.2524 Low 13 July
COMMENTARY: Focus remains on the upside and close above $1.3000 level --
the 61.8% of decline from $1.3692 to $1.1881 move -- improves outlook.
Resistance is at $1.3028 and above here not much to halt progress until
$1.3093. The fast 10-day momentum study is turning higher and overall
risk is measured move of the inverse head-&-shoulders target at $1.3117.

21:34 07/26 CABLE TECHS: One more rise seen before retreat
RES 3 $1.5607 61.8% r of $1.6459 to $1.4228
RES 2 $1.5576 Feb 23 high
RES 1 $1.5524 Apr 15 high
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5493
SUP 1 $1.5451 Reaction low fm y'day's $1.5521 high
SUP 2 $1.5395 Y'day's low in AUS
SUP 3 $1.5349 Friday's NY low
COMMENTARY: Hourly chart shows present contraction in Bollinger bands
suggests initial sideways trading before gains resume later today to
$1.5550, being 61.8% proj. of N-T rise from $1.5125 to $1.5450 measured
from $1.5349 but hourly oscillators to display very prominent bearish
diverging signals, upside likely to falter well below dynamic resistance
at $1.5607 (61.8% of $1.6459 to $1.4228), risk then for correction