Sunday, July 18, 2010

19/07/010

EURO-DOLLAR: Testing 100-day Moving Average
RES 4: $1.3192 Former support line from Feb 2002, now resistance
RES 3: $1.3115/26 Low 28 Apr, 38.2% of $1.5144 to $1.1881
RES 2: $1.3020 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.3000/08 61.8% of $1.3692 to $1.1881, High 16 July
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2903
SUP 1: $1.2776 High 14 July
SUP 2: $1.2524/40 Low 13 July, 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.2483 Low 6 July
SUP 4: $1.2392/97 High 25/28 June
COMMENTARY: Euro is still testing a break above the 100-day moving
average at $1.2910 as well as testing the daily Bollinger band ($1.3020
currently). There are risks of a fade here as daily studies are not
offering much support to the move, but remember that recent bullish flag
& inverse H&S patterns still favour eventual gains back towards
$1.3115/26 Fibonacci area. There is additional Fibonacci resistance at
$1.3000, while initial support is at $1.2940 from the 5-day moving
average.
--
CABLE: Pulls Back From Bollinger Band
RES 4: $1.5590 200-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5522/56 High 15 Apr, 50% retracement of decline from Nov 2009
RES 2: $1.5497 High 26 April
RES 1: $1.5420/73 Bollinger band, High 15 July
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5309
SUP 1: $1.5300 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5100 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5065 Support line
SUP 4: $1.4980 100-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Cable bounced from both the 21 & 100-day moving averages
accompanied by a recovery in momentum from the zero line. However, the
market is now testing the top of the Bollinger band as the daily
stochastic remains in overbought territory, sending a warning to bulls.
--
DOLLAR-YEN: Daily Studies Remain Soft
RES 4: Y89.20 Kijun line
RES 3: Y88.55 21-day moving average
RES 2: Y88.02 Low 13 July
RES 1: Y87.60/75 5-day moving average, Tenkan line
CURRENT LEVEL: Y86.69
SUP 1: Y86.35 Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 2: Y86.27 Low 16 July
SUP 3: Y86.10 2% Volatility Band
SUP 4: Y84.83 Low 27 Nov
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen as slipped back below the 5-DMA, which turns
resistance at Y87.60 as daily studies start to fade and 10-day momentum
remains negative.


EURO-YEN: Daily Studies Fade
RES 4: Y115.21 38.2% retracement of decline from 5 April
RES 3: Y114.27 38.2% retracement of decline from 4 May
RES 2: Y113.20/40 Ichimoku cloud base, High 15 July
RES 1: Y112.55 5-day moving average
CURRENT PRICE: Y111.93
SUP 1: Y111.25 Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y111.07 38.2% retracement of July recovery
SUP 3: Y110.95 21-day moving average
SUP 4: Y110.30/37 Kijun line, 50% retracement
COMMENTARY: The euro-yen bounce gained support from the daily stochastic
study as well as 10-day momentum, although both of these studies are now
fading as bulls face the Ichimoku cloud from Y113.20.


EURO-STERLING: Pushes Over 55-DMA but Studies Weaken
RES 4: stg0.8546 Minor high 28 May
RES 3: stg0.8504 61.8% retracement
RES 2: stg0.8485 Current top of the Bollinger band
RES 1: stg0.8462 High 16 July
CURRENT LEVEL: Stg0.8426
SUP 1: stg0.8316 Low 13 July
SUP 2: stg0.8295 21-day moving average
SUP 3: stg0.8110 Base of the Bollinger band
SUP 4: stg0.8069 Low 29 June, 7 Nov 2008
COMMENTARY: Euro-sterling is pushing above the 55-DMA, which turns
initial support with the converging 5-DMA at stg0.8390. The move now
faces the top of the Bollinger band, currently at stg0.8485 as the daily
studies turn lower, including a bear-cross in the daily stochastic from
overbought territory.





Stocks Sharply Lower After Alarming Drop In Consumer Sentiment

Stocks are posting steep losses in mid-morning trading on Friday, as a thoroughly disappointing reading on July consumer sentiment sent equity prices into a downward spiral. The downside has also come as a mixed batch of earnings may have lessened trader expectations of a strong second quarter earnings season.

A short time ago, the markets extended their earlier losses after Reuters and the University of Michigan reported that their consumer sentiment index plummeted to a reading of 66.5 in July from the final June reading of 76.0. Economists had been expecting the index to show a much more modest decrease to a reading of 74.5.

Also on the economic front this morning, the Labor Department released a report showing that consumer prices edged down by 0.1 percent in June, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, core prices, which exclude food and energy prices, increased by 0.2 percent in June, just above expectations for a pickup of 0.1 percent.

Earlier, markets were presented with quarterly results from Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C) and General Electric Co. (GE), all of which beat profit expectations but failed to meet revenue forecasts.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is on the upside following news that it has reached a settlement agreement with the SEC over claims of securities fraud linked to its mortgage investments. Under the settlement, Goldman will pay $300 million in fines to the Treasury Department and about $250 million as restitution to investors.

Tech-giant Apple (AAPL) has reportedly set up a press conference for 1 p.m. ET to answer questions regarding consumer complaints of poor reception on the iPhone 4. The device saw the strongest product launch in company history.

In other news, BP Plc's (BP) new cap on the troublesome oil well in Gulf of Mexico is seeing success in sealing the leak after 87 days of spillage. The stock is seeing a partial recovery from a fourteen-year closing low set last month.

The major averages have slowed their decline in recent trading but are currently lingering near their session lows. The Dow is down 168.97 points or 1.6 percent at 10,190.34, the Nasdaq is down 41.60 points or 1.9 percent at 2,207.48 and the S&P 500 is down 19.54 points or 1.8 percent at 1,076.94.

Sector News

Banking stocks are among the morning's worst performers, with the KBW Bank Index posting a loss of 3.8 percent. Despite the sharp drop, the index remains in a recent range.

Bank of America is turning in one of the sector's worst performances despite reporting second quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates. Shares of the banking giant are currently down by 7 percent, pulling back further its recent highs.

Before the start of trading, Bank of America said its second-quarter net income came in at $0.27 per share, topping expectations for $0.22 per share. However, the company reported total revenue for the quarter of $29.15 billion, short of the $29.75 billion forecast for the period.

Gold, networking, railroad and airline stocks are also under pressure, further contributing to the sharp drop by the major averages. Notably, the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index is down by 3.2 percent and is on pace for a six-week closing low.

The weakness in the gold sector comes as the price of the precious metal has plummeted by $20.10 to $1,118.20 an ounce.

Stocks Driven By Analyst Comments

Ritchie Bros. (RBA) is notably lower after being downgraded at RBC Capital Markets from Sector Perform to Underperform. The broker also lowered its target on the stock from $18 to $16. Shares are currently down by 4.8 percent, sinking to a fifteen-month intraday low.



Alliant Energy (LNT) is also on the downside following a downgrade by analysts at Wunderlich from Buy to Hold. The stock is posting a loss of 2.4 percent, falling from its best closing price in nearly three months.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stocks across the Asia-Pacific region were mostly lower to close out the week. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 Index ended the day down by 2.9 percent.

The major European markets are also seeing steep losses. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index is down by 0.7 percent, while the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index are down by 2.1 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

In the bond markets, treasuries are moderately higher amid the weakness on Wall Street. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, is trading at 2.947 percent, posting a loss of 3.1 basis points.