FX TECHNICALS: 16 July 2010
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.3000 Fibonacci Level Next Key Resistance
RES 4: $1.3192 Former support line from Feb 2002, now resistance
RES 3: $1.3115/26 Low 28 Apr, 38.2% of $1.5144 to $1.1881
RES 2: $1.3000 61.8% of $1.3692 to $1.1881
RES 1: $1.2970 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2955
SUP 1: $1.2917 100-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.2776/93 High 14 July, 5-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.2721 High 9 July
SUP 4: $1.2518/24 21-day moving average, Low 13 July
COMMENTARY: Euro yesterday closed above the 100-day moving average for
the first time since Dec 14, 2009 with bulls now eyeing $1.3000 --
61.8% of $1.3692 to $1.1881. Initial resistance is at the daily
Bollinger band top at $1.2970, but this is a rising target. The
measure move of the H&S break targets $1.3117 & $1.3126 Fibonacci. Look
for a fade here as the daily studies remain unconvinced of rally.
CABLE: Tests Top of Bollinger Band
RES 4: $1.5590 200-day moving average
RES 3: $1.5522/56 High 15 Apr, 50% retracement of decline from Nov 2009
RES 2: $1.5497 High 26 April
RES 1: $1.5473 High 15 July
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5269
SUP 1: $1.5391 High 30 April
SUP 2: $1.5260 5-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5080 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.4980 100-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Cable bounced from both the 21 & 100-day moving averages
accompanied by a recovery in momentum from the zero line. However, the
market is now testing the top of the Bollinger band as the daily
stochastic remains in overbought territory, sending a warning to bulls.
DOLLAR-YEN: July Lows Under Pressure
RES 4: Y90.60/75 55, 200-Day moving average
RES 3: Y89.60 Kijun line
RES 2: Y88.75 21-day moving average
RES 1: Y88.02/10 Low 13 July, Tenkan line, 5-day moving average
CURRENT LEVEL: Y87.02
SUP 1: Y86.96 Low 1 July
SUP 2: Y86.59 Low 2 Dec
SUP 3: Y86.45 Base of the daily Bollinger band
SUP 4: Y84.83 Low 27 Nov
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen as slipped back below the 5-DMA, which turns
resistance at Y88.10 as daily studies start to fade and 10-day momentum
remain negative. Bulls need to keep the market over the July lows,
currently under pressure at Y86.96.
EURO-YEN: Daily Studies Fade
RES 4: Y115.21 38.2% retracement of decline from 5 April
RES 3: Y114.27 38.2% retracement of decline from 4 May
RES 2: Y113.40 High 15 July
RES 1: Y113.20 Ichimoku cloud base
CURRENT PRICE: Y112.39
SUP 1: Y112.50 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y111.72/91 Low 13 July, Minor July support line
SUP 3: Y111.00/20 21-day moving average, Tenkan line
SUP 4: Y110.30 Kijun line
COMMENTARY: The euro-yen bounce gained support from the daily stochastic
study as well as 10-day momentum, although both of these studies are now
showing signs of fading as bulls face the Ichimoku cloud from Y113.20.
EURO-STERLING: Tests 50% Retracement, 55-DMA
RES 4: stg0.8546 Minor high 28 May
RES 3: stg0.8504 61.8% retracement
RES 2: stg0.8465 Current top of the Bollinger band
RES 1: stg0.8400/21 55-day moving average, 50% retracement level
CURRENT LEVEL: Stg0.8377
SUP 1: stg0.8316 Low 13 July
SUP 2: stg0.8290 21-day moving average
SUP 3: stg0.8115 Base of the Bollinger band
SUP 4: stg0.8069 Low 29 June, 7 Nov 2008
COMMENTARY: Euro-sterling tested the 55-DMA and Fibonacci resistance,
now at stg0.8400/21 before reversing amid a downturn in the daily
stochastic study from overbought territory. Fibonacci supports come in
at stg0.8284, stg0.8243, stg0.8202.
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