X TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 9 July 2010
EURO-DOLLAR: Approaching 7-Month Resistance Line
RES 4: $1.2960/00 100-day moving average, 61.8% retracement
RES 3: $1.2822 Resistance line 13 Jan
RES 2: $1.2787 50% retracement of Apr/Jun decline
RES 1: $1.2718 Resistance line 3 Dec
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.2683
SUP 1: $1.2630 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.2483 Low 6 July
SUP 3: $1.2392/97 High 25/28 June, 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.2286 Support line 7 June
COMMENTARY: Euro is approaching 7-month resistance line at $1.2718,
where an initial fade is at risk. However, a break above is supported by
daily studies as well as the recent bull-flag and inverse H&S patterns,
which target measured moves well over $1.30. Above $1.2718, there is
Fibonacci and further resistance line at $1.2787, $1.2822, which support
comes from the 2 July high and 5-DMA at $1.2612/30.
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CABLE: Holds in Rising Channel
RES 4: $1.5425 2% Volatility Band
RES 3: $1.5391/05 High 30 April, Channel top
RES 2: $1.5325 Bollinger band top
RES 1: $1.5230 High 5 July
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5153
SUP 1: $1.5081 Low 6, 7 July
SUP 2: $1.5059 8 June channel support
SUP 3: $1.4990 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.4960 21-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Cable is holding in a broad rising channel, the parameters
of which are now $1.5059/$1.5405. This is as daily studies push into
overbought territory and momentum fades, however, which is starting to
encourage some profit-taking in the recent rally.
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DOLLAR-YEN: Daily Studies Recover
RES 4: Y90.62/80 61.8% retracement, 200-Day moving average
RES 3: Y89.93/03 50% June decline, 38.2% of May/June decline
RES 2: Y89.23 38.2% retracement of June decline
RES 1: Y88.98 Low 20 May
CURRENT LEVEL: Y88.63
88.22 Tenkan
SUP 1: Y87.95 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y86.96 Low 1 July
SUP 3: Y86.59 Low 2 Dec
SUP 4: Y84.83 Low 27 Nov
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen is recovering over the 5-DMA of Y87.95 and Tenkan
line at Y88.20 with daily studies supporting the move and turning bull's
attention to Fibonacci retracements from Y89.23.
EURO-YEN: Daily Studies Recover
RES 4: Y116.40 50% retracement of decline from 4 May
RES 3: Y115.21 38.2% retracement of decline from 5 April
RES 2: Y114.27/50 38.2% of decline from 4 May, Ichimoku cloud base
RES 1: Y113.80 55-day moving average
CURRENT PRICE: Y112.41
SUP 1: Y111.15 5-day moving average
SUP 2: Y110.70/90 Kijun line, 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y110.26 Minor July support line
SUP 4: Y109.14 Low 6 Jul
COMMENTARY: The euro-yen bounce continues with further support from a
bull-cross in the daily stochastic study as well as 10-day momentum.
The main Fibonacci retracements start from Y114.27.
EURO-STERLING: Breaks Over 21-DMA
RES 4: stg0.8440 Top of the Bollinger band
RES 3: stg0.8421/25 50% retracement, 55-day moving average
RES 2: stg0.8395 High 18 June
RES 1: stg0.8381 High 8 July
CURRENT LEVEL: Stg0.8369
SUP 1: stg0.8330 5-day moving average
SUP 2: stg0.8280 21-day moving average
SUP 3: stg0.8120 Base of the Bollinger band
SUP 4: stg0.8069 Low 29 June, 7 Nov 2008
COMMENTARY: Euro-sterling has pushed above the 21-DMA, which has seen a
bull-cross with the 5-DMA at initial support of stg0.8330 and stg0.8280.
The move is also supported by 10-day momentum pushing back into positive
territory as well as by the recent bull-cross in the daily stochastic.
It is worth noting the cross has not sustained a break over the 21-DMA,
with a similar move in May capped by the Bollinger band, currently at
stg0.8440.